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Inside Scratch Rule
| In part one we discussed post position at Northfield and the relationships between the same. Here is the table that was presented in part one:
As a point of review the numbers represent the winning percentage above or below what would be expected if post position were no factor, that is, if there were no advantage or disadvantage for any given post. See Cliff on post position for the discussion on how the numbers were derived. The exact numbers aren't all that interesting. what is important is the relationship of the post positions to each other that the numbers represent. The table would suggest that there is no real difference between pp's 3, 4, or 5; and that pp1 is over twice the advantage of pp2. I often use the terms "positive" and "negative" post in my analyses. This table illustrates from where the terms come. The other most salient observation we need to make, and the reason for this whole discussion,
How do we put this rather dramatic discovery to work for us?
An "inside horse" means any of the positive posts, 1 -5. As an example, let's say the #2 horse is scratched in a given race. All horses outside pp2 move one spot closer to the rail at the start of the race, in effect changing post position. Looking at the table above, it should be clear to see which entry stands to benefit the most from the scratch. The #3 horse moves to pp2 and gains 10 points. The #4 and #5 also move in, but for them the move is, statistically neutral. The #6 moves from negative territory to positive, and gains 35 points in the process. The #7 and #8 both gain, but still have negative posts. The #9, starting from the second tier would appear to be unaffected by the scratch. The beauty of the rule is that most casual race fans and handicappers don't give much consideration to the effect that a scratched entry has on the rest of the field. Unless they were considering wagering on the scratched horse, they may not give it much thought at all. They will generally evaluate and wager the race as before. This tends to leave the outside horses underplayed, without considering the post changes. Here is how I apply the rule in my own handicapping. Before the scratch, if I had considered the #6 to be a contender in the race, but chose another because of #6's negative post draw, I play the horse to win, or on top in exotic wagers. In addition, I may still wager the race as I had planned if I feel strongly about another entry, but the unrecognized value of the post position change for the #6 is too tempting to pass up. Here are a few examples from recent races which illustrates this play:
I know what you're thinking, "Cliff, you've picked out examples where the angle seems to have worked. What about the times when it doesn't?" Fair enough. Just like any angle, this one doesn't always work. You can certainly go back through the charts and find those examples as well. It works often enough however, that it should at least be considered when it stares you in the face at post time. Also, it's not always necessary or prudent to play the six horse to win, or on top in the exotics when there is an inside scratch. Just be aware that #6 is the one benefitting the most from the scratch. There are other ways to play the angle if the scratch doesn't change your thinking about the probable winner. If I feel the #6 had a chance to hit the trifecta or superfecta ticket even with the negative post, I now slide him at least one spot up in the wheel. Generally this will add value to the payout, if I've picked the winner correctly. Examples of this strategy:
Lastly, if the #6 is a throw away before the scratch, he now has to be included in either a trifecta or superfecta wheel. Again, this is a value play, as many don't recognize how much the scratch affects the outside posts. A couple final examples:
This concludes my discussion of the "inside scratch rule". Hope it makes sense to all you Northfield handicappers. If I haven't convinced you to play the angle, make note of the results of races where there is an inside scratch. You may convince yourself. |
An interesting corollary to the above rule results when there are two scratches. It doesn't happen all that often, but when it does, it can be very profitable.
Last updated 05/31/02
It also clearly shows how the disadvantage doubles at each step from pp6 on out to pp8.
is that there is a dramatic change between pp5 and pp6. Post position 5 is positive (15) and pp6 is negative (-20). This is where post position switches from being an advantage to being a disadvantage. Not only that, but the 35 points that separate the two post positions is the widest of any two contiguous post positions. 
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. Not too difficult:
The 673 trifecta paid $940. 
I just slap myself when something like that happens. 
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