Cliff's Northfield

Northfield grandstand, Saturday, June 1, 2002, before the start of race 6.

"Not playing Hinkle?" a friend asks as he watches me draw lines through several entries in the program, including the number eight horse, Hinkle.
"Nope", I reply matter-of-factly.
"The TV guy (Dave B) likes him, and they're betting him", he said as we both glance at the tote board to see Hinkle as the early favorite.
"Hrumpf," I snort, shaking my head in disbelief.
"Hey, he's a decent trotter, has Randy (Tharps) tonight; there's not a lot to beat in this one. I think he can win it, even from out there (pp8)."
"Ok, it's your money, but it won't be yours long if you're betting Hinkle," I retort not even looking up from the program.
"Oh yeah, what makes you say that?" comes the puzzled response.
"How many times has Hinkle won a race starting from a negative post?" [Cliff on post position]
"I dunno."
"Lifetime, I don't know either, but in the last two years he's only done it twice, both from the six hole, never from the eight, and one of those times he was in real cheap. Most of his victories have come from the first three post post positions."
"Hmmmmm," the light starting to go on.
"And when was the last time a trotter won from the eight in a nine horse field on Saturday night?"
"Ok, tell me," he said, ready to give up the argument.
"Six months ago, last December. Do the names 'Stan' and 'Cinder N Spice' ring a bell?"
My friend nods affirmatively.
"Both of those were three year olds at the time, working their way up the condition ranks. We know what kind of trotters they both became, especially Stan. Is there a 'Stan' or 'Cinder N Spice' in this race?
My friend looks down at the program, although he already knows the answer.
"No other trotter has won from that far outside on Saturday since those two did it six months ago, and nothing in Hinkle's past suggests that he's going to change that trend tonight."
Now nodding in agreement, my friend asks, "Why do you know all that stuff, the last trotter to win, and blah blah blah, you know, all that stuff?"
"The better question to ask, is why you don't," I replied.

Here Are The Stats:

Since December 1, 2001 there have been 27 Saturday nights of racing at Northfield as this is being written, June 2, 2002. During that six months of Saturday night racing there have been a total of 312 races with either eight or nine starters. The total number of winners from negative posts (pp6, pp7, pp8) in those starts is 46 (14.7%). A further breakdown reveals nearly two thirds of those came from the six hole:

pp6	29	9.3%
pp7	12	3.8%
pp8	5	1.6%

When we compare these winning percentages on Saturday evening with the overall we see a significant decrease in the likelyhood of winning from posts seven and eight, while the winning percentage starting from pp6 remains consistent with the overall. If the percentages for pp7 and pp8 are so much lower on Saturdays, then they must be somewhat higher on the other days of the week to give the overall averages.

Why the disparity between days of the week? I can't say for certain, but I've postulated a few reasons that seem like reasonable explanations. First of all there is a better class of horses competing for higher purses on Saturday evening. In these higher condition and claiming races the entries are much more likely to be closer in abilities. The advantage post position plays in harness racing is much more evident in races where the competitors are closely matched. We see this over and over in these races. A horse wins handily from the two hole one week, then finishes out of the money the next when he draws the seven against the same competition.

Secondly, in these higher level condition and claiming races there is less movement of the horses up and down in class. The condition horses hold form more consistently than the cheaper stock competing on the other evenings. Consequently they seldom move more than one spot up or down from their proper class. We also see this frequently in their lines. When they draw inside, they score enough to remain at that level or maybe be bumped up a notch. When they draw poorly, they fail to cash the top checks which keeps them at that level, or if their luck at the draw is bad long enough, they eventually get class relief for a start or two before returning to their proper level. The claimers are moved up and down by their connections according to their current form. I've come to realize that class is less of a handicapping factor among these claimers than current form and post position. For example, a sharp 10 claimer will still be competitive at the 12.5 or 15 claiming level with an inside draw. A 15 claimer having trouble cashing checks at his own level (off form) is not a good bet to beat 10 claimers especially if he draws outside.

Also for the most part, the races on Saturday are filled with aged horses whose abilities and proper classifications are well known. It's more likely on other nights to have a "ringer" shipping in who happens to fit a cheap condition. That invader may be 10 or 15 lengths faster than the rest of the field, so it really doesn't matter what post he draws. There are also horses on the mend racing the other nights. These horses who suddenly get right against cheap competition are much more likely to win from an outside post. Then there is the case of young horses who initially blow away the competition no matter what the post. This was the case mentioned in the prologue with the success of Stan and Cinder N Spice last December. It was the exception that those horses were racing on Saturday. Most of the time these youngsters will be strutting their stuff earlier in the week.

But whatever the reasons, the numbers don't lie. It's rare to see an outside horse win on Saturday nights. Usually there are special circumstances surrounding those infrequent victories, as in the cases of Stan and Cinder N Spice. To win on Saturday night at Northfield a horse needs to be in very good form and draw an inside post. There are very few exceptions to that rule. So the next time a "Hinkle" wearing the gray saddle cloth looks good to you, remember: on Saturdays, Post is Most. .