Cliff's Northfield

Double Scratch Corollary:

When two or more horses are scratched in a race, we must use the outside horses (pp7 & pp8) in any exotic wagering schemes.

The reasons for this rule are quite logical. Exotic players are looking for large payoffs. In order to have large payoffs, horses with longer odds need to hit the ticket. Many times the horses with long odds are on the outside. The bettors realize to one extent or another the disadvantage outside posts present and wager accordingly. What many fail to realize is the change that takes place when horses are scratched. This is the anomaly that we want to exploit.

Take a look at the table of post position values that was presented and used in part one and part two of this discussion:

In part two we came to realize how an inside scratch affects the outside horses, and concluded, I hope ,  that the #6 horse is the one that gains the most advantage from the scratch. We also learned that most race goers don't give enough consideration to that fact, and the #6 horse is thus often under valued and under bet by the wagering public.

Now consider when two horses are scratched. For purposes of this discussion, we can use any two horses other than the #7 or #8. For an example let's choose the #2 and #5. What happens to the other horses?

#1 remains	apparently is unaffected
#3 moves to pp2	gains 10 points
#4 moves to pp3	net effect of zero
#6 moves to pp4	gains 35 points the same as if there were only one scratch, and the move was to the pp5
#7 moves to pp5	gains 55 points
#8 moves to pp6	gains 40 points
#9 remains	apparently is unaffected

Note: in the case of the #1 and #9 horse, "apparently" is the operative word. Common sense tells us that any time the number of horses is decreased, all the others stand to benefit to some degree by the smaller field. So even though the rail horse and the trailer don't change post positions in this scenario, they still benefit from the shortened field. This "benefit" extends to all the entries equally, so for this discussion it can be ignored.

It's easy to see where I'm headed with this. The outside horses gain the most in the position switches, while the inside horses gain relatively little. The #6 horse gained the most from the first inside scratch, but the additional scratch doesn't benefit it at all. The gains by the #7 and #8 horses now surpass the gain by the #6 horse and effectively negate the advantage it enjoyed with the single scratch.

Just as with the single inside scratch, most bettors don't pay as much attention to the post shifts as they should. With the reduced field the odds on all the horses are bound to go down, including those on the outside, but relative to the remaining inside horses, they decrease only modestly.

Let me digress with a little story which typifies how many Northfield bettors under react to the changes brought about by scratches. Once upon a time, in a galaxy, far, far away (oops, wrong story   ) not so long ago, sitting at Northfield with someone who normally is a pretty sharp horse player, this fellow asked me who I liked in a race. I replied, "the eight (horse)".

He looked at me as if I had lost all my marbles. "How can you play the eight? He doesn't have a driver (an opinion I didn't share) and he's 15/1."

"It's the 15/1 I like," I replied. "With the scratches there are only seven horses going. I think he leaves now and gets a decent trip. Even if he doesn't win, there is a good shot he hits the board."

"Well, I NEVER play the eight. Just a waste of money!" was his retort.

Needless to say I cashed a nice little trifecta ticket when the eight horse finished second at nearly 20/1. My buddy threw away his worthless slip of paper and mumbled something about "how lucky can a guy get". .

Was I really that lucky? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. While I would never be one to discount luck at the races, sometimes it is better to be lucky than good, my belief is that for the most part we make our own luck. It's amazing how lucky one becomes when he makes the proper plays at the proper times.

You may have noticed that I've omitted the term "inside" in reference to the scratched horses. That's because, since we are interested in the far outside horses, all scratches are effectively inside these two. That includes a scratch of the second tier horse, #9. It is not as readily apparent, looking at the table how a scratch of the #9 affects the outside horses. Their posts don't shift inward, so there are no points to be awarded. It becomes more difficult to quantify the effect of a scratched 9 horse. I struggled with this myself, but came to realize empirically, that the fewer inside horses (and the #9 is indeed an inside horse) the outside guys had to deal with, the better their chances. It's pretty well known, and can be shown statistically that the #7 and #8 horses win more frequently in seven and eight horse fields than they do in nine horse fields. It's not a great leap of faith to believe that a scratched second tier horse has a similar effect on the chances of the outside horses as any other scratch. I could be convinced otherwise, but no one has yet to show me where I am wrong.

Here is a classic example of the double scratch corollary at work. I'm sorry I lost the chart of the race with hard drive problems some months ago, so the exact details were lost with it.:

• August 29, 2001 - - 1st race - - two horses scratched from the original eight horse field.   I wasn't even going to play this race after the two scratches reduced the field to six horses. Playing exotics with such short fields is generally counter productive. The previous time spent handicapping the race seemed wasted, so I turned my attention to the next race. I did, however keep an eye on the tote board. I couldn't believe that the #8 horse, D Gs Acura wasn't getting much play. With the scratches he acquires the six hole. Having studied the program earlier I was aware that this same horse/driver (Sturgeon) combination had won this same race from the six hole two weeks previously, and in a nine horse field at that. He went off at 25/1 that day. Surely the Northfield bettors, now searching for a horse, would wake up and give this entry the respect he was due. How could they make the same mistake twice in the same month? .Nearing post time and the odds barely moved, still double digits, with Case being overplayed as usual. Couldn't resist the temptation now: I went to the window and bet a small trifecta wheel with the 8 over a couple of the favorites over ALL. Final odds showed Sturgeon and D Gs Acura at 11/1. Bruce gave him a beautiful trip, coming off the pace to win in a lifetime best mark. The trifecta paid in excess of $500. which is amazing with such a short field. That race left an indelible mark in my memory bank. .